Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
